And your left with a nice clean asshole, namely Vice President Mike Pence. I laughed out loud at this line myself. Washington has become nothing but a huge collection of assholes.
The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of Ron Patterson. The eventual peak in World fossil fuel output is a potentially serious problem for human civilization.
Jean Laherrere has studied the problem extensively with his focus primarily on oil and natural gas, but with some exploration of the coal resource as well. David Rutledge has studied the coal resource using linearization techniques on the production data which he calls logit and probit. Paul Pukite introduced the Shock Model with dispersive discovery which he has used primarily to look at how oil and natural gas resources are developed and extracted over time.
In the current post I will apply the Shock model to the coal resource, again trying to build on the work of Mohr, Rutledge, Laherrere, and Pukite.
A summary of URR estimates for World coal are below: Laherrere also has a high case of Gtoe for the World coal URR, which seems too optimistic in my opinion. The Rutledge estimate was about Gtoe.
I do not have access to discovery data for coal, but based on World Resource estimates gathered by David Rutledge, most coal resources had been discovered by the s. I developed simple dispersive discovery models with peak discovery around for each of the three cases, these are rough estimates, I only know is that coal was discovered over time.
The cumulative coal discovery models in Gtoe are shown in the chart below for the low, medium and high URR cases. Coal resources have been developed very slowly, especially since the discovery of oil and natural gas.
As a simplification I assume that the rate that the discovered coal is developed remains constant over time. A maximum entropy probability density function with a mean time from discovery to first production of years is used to approximate how quickly new proved developed producing reserves are added to any reserves already producing each year.
For example a million tonne of oil equivalent 1 Gtoe coal discovery would be developed on average as shown in the chart below: Reading from the chart, about 9 Mtoe of new producing reserves would be developed from this discovery in and about 5 Mtoe of new producing reserves would be developed in About half of the Mt discovered in would have become producing reserves byso the median time from discovery to producing reserve is about 70 years the mean is years due to the long tail of the exponential probability density function.
The new producing reserves curve when everything is added up is shown below for the medium URR case Gtoe: Each year new producing reserves are added to the pool of producing reserves while some of these reserves are produced and become fossil fuel output.
This is indicated schematically below: If the Fossil fuel output is less than the new producing reserves added in any year, then the producing reserves would increase during that year, if the reverse is true they would decrease. The fossil fuel output divided by the producing reserves is called the extraction rate.
The chart below shows the discovery curve, new producing reserves curve, and the output curve for the scenario with a URR of Gtoe.
Note that when new producing reserves are more than output the producing reserves will increase up toafter output is higher than the new producing reserves added each year so producing reserves start to decrease.
The fall in producing reserves combined with increased World output of coal from to required an increase in extraction rates from 1. Clearly I do not know the future extraction rate, this is an estimate assuming recent trends continue.
For the low and high URR cases the details of the analysis are covered at the end of the post. The extraction rate trend from to was also extended until a peak was reached and then the increase in extraction rates were assumed to lessen until a constant rate of extraction was reached.
The three scenarios low, medium, and high are presented in the chart below. Note that the medium scenario is not my best estimate, it is simply a scenario between possible low or high URR cases, reality might fall on any path between the high and low scenarios, depending on the eventual URR and extraction rates in the future.
My scenarios peak at higher output at a later year and decline more steeply as a result. My medium scenario URR of The various scenarios are presented in the chart below. The extraction rates in the 4 different Gtoe scenarios can be compared in the chart that follows.
The mainstream view is that there are extensive coal resources that are economically recoverable, research by Rutledge, Mohr, and Laherrere contradicts this view. Based on the recent work by Laherrere, my best estimate would be Gtoe Gtoe is the average of my medium and high cases and Gtoe is the average of the Mohr and Laherrere medium cases, the average of all 4 is Gtoe.
Works Cited De Sousa, Luis. Projection of world fossil fuel production with supply and demand interactions.Gmail is email that's intuitive, efficient, and useful. 15 GB of storage, less spam, and mobile access. The article was also rife with basic factual errors -- including, claiming that, in ", John Thune" was "the Democratic candidate for Senate in South Dakota" and that he ran against "then Senate majority leader Tom Daschle." The year was and, during that time, the Democrats, whom Daschle led in the Senate, were in the minority; Thune.
Malaysia Students blog on education in Malaysia, STPM and SPM tips and exam trial papers, scholarships, pre-university and tertiary education advices. Jul 20, · "Nevertheless, the ministry allows students with a pass in the Sijil Pelajaran Malaysia (SPM) who have the UEC and fulfil certain conditions to take up Chinese Language studies at the Institute of Teacher Education Malaysia.
it is only confined to the primary level to the best of my knowledge. At the secondary level, the education system. NOAA shows the Earth red hot in December, with record heat in central Africa.
NOAA Reported. The map above is fake. NOAA has almost no temperature data from Africa, and none from central Africa. Feb 07, · In , while writing for the London Evening Standard in Britain, Hosenball and coauthor Duncan Campbell had written an article exposing the British equivalent of the National Security Agency.
As a result of this article, British authorities began proceedings to deport Hosenball, who was the son of an American lawyer.